From yougov ... Our latest UK general election 2024 MRP projects a 154 seat majority for Labour
New MRP figures released today from YouGov project that, if the country were voting in a general election tomorrow, Labour would win 403 seats nationwide. Crossing the 400-seat line is a significant milestone for Keir Starmer’s party in what is our second MRP projection this year.

Their Conservative rivals would win just 155 seats according to our model, down from 169 in our January projection, suggesting that the electoral situation is getting worse, rather than better, for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives as we draw closer to the election.

The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from 7-27 March.

These latest results push Keir Starmer closer toward repeating a Blair-level result for Labour, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats.

By contrast, Rishi Sunak is now heading for a worse result than John Major’s 1997 total of 165 seats.

The coming tidal wave projected by this model would sweep away several major Conservative figures. The most prominent casualty could be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is currently fractionally behind the Lib Dems in his Godalming and Ash seat. Science secretary Michelle Donelan is also currently trailing the Lib Dems in her Melksham and Devizes seat, and Michael Gove is just one point ahead in his Surrey Heath seat.

Individual consituency forecasts can be viewed at
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articl...over-400-seats

Source: yougov.co.uk

As long as one of them is Southport.

Originally Posted by Red devil

As long as one of them is Southport.

Better not be - if you want Labour you had better go back to Liverpool.

Originally Posted by Red devil

As long as one of them is Southport.

New YouGov MRP shows Labour would win more than 400 seats if election were held tomorrow

Southport party	%
Conservative	27%
Labour	45%
LibDem	11%
Green	5%
Reform UK	12%

Labour winner
2019 winner*: Conservatives
Labour gain from Conservatives*
* based on 2019 notional results

People had been suggesting that the effect of Reform would be that it would steal Tory votes, and benefit Labour.

If you look at the projection for Southport, it would appear that Labour wins even if you add all the Reform and Tory votes together.

I would suspect that there is a substantial number of previously Tory voters who will abstain rather than take the radical step of voting against their party.

Shouldn't Labour win all the seats?

What's happening to the others, the Tory weed machine covers them as well?

It's only a poll. Nothing is written . Bring it on.